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2004-01-04
I predict civil war for Iraq. If there's no local security, then thugs run rampant. If thugs run rampant, the populace gets desperate. If the populace gets desperate, they are vulnerable to demogogues (maybe even the very thugs causing the problems in the first place!). Then the question of security becomes one of "us" versus "them," and it doesn't matter what lines the distinction is drawn on, be they religion, ethnicity, political persuasion, geography, or class. Then the battle lines are drawn and some skirmish snowballs into open conflict.
I reserve judgment on whatever "with us or against us" rhetoric has emerged from the American political establishment.
--Melissa O, at 22:31
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